First Poll Shift of General Election

This week marks the first time since Barack Obama wrapped up the nomination that we have seen movement in the polls. Obama has maintained a 4-6 point lead since winning the nomination in early June. The Rasmussen tracking poll had Obama with a consistent lead over that period until this week. Obama's lead has steadily shrunk this week to a tie between him and competitor John McCain.

In addition to the Rasmussen poll a Newsweek poll released today shows the Illinois senator leading his rival by 3 points, down from 15 a month ago. The Newsweek poll was considered an outlier by most so this more recent poll is much more in line with general wisdom however the 12 point drop does lend credence to the fact that the senator has lost some steam.

The other well respected daily tracking poll from Gallup has been much more volatile over the last 6 weeks, shifting daily from an Obama 6 point lead to a dead heat, has Obama with a 4 point lead as of today, down two yesterday. I'll keep watch and see if the Gallup breaks new ground.

The democratic nominee has had a rough couple weeks . (with the noted exception of McCain's chief economic advisers out of touch remarks on Thursday) He is taking heat from both the right and the left over shifting positions during that time. The left is angry over Obama's vote on the FISA legislation last week, and the right is blasting him over what they call "Flip Flops" on everything from the Iraq war, campaign finance, abortion, the death penalty, and the second amendment.

Whether all these charges are true doesn't really matter. The MSM has grasped this story and is running with it. Public perception is that Obama has shifted. I attribute Obama's recent suffering in the polls too this perception taking hold. Senator Obama won the democratic Primary running against Washington and as a new politician who will tell you "Not what you want to hear but what you need to hear." It looks as though this flip-flop charge has stuck with some voters and thus a loss of support.

As mentioned earlier the McCain campaign has had its own problems the last couple days and we will wait and see if the polls reflect that. This writer believes most of the polling doesn't matter much until after the VP selections and conventions. Although I do believe that whether Hilary gets on the ticket may be related to how well Barack is doing in the polls in mid August and how well the party is uniting. The tighter the race is, the better Hilary's chances are.