Dick Morris who I consider a conservative hack actually made a good point this evening. He made a point that Barack Obama was losing by 4 points among women over 40 though he should be winning this group by 5-10 points. Hmmmmm, women over 40, what possible reason could they be lagging behind?
Its clear now that the reason obama isn't further ahead in the polls than the 4 point lead he appears to have is this group and their hesitancy to back Mr. Obama. I'm sure the Obama campaign is aware of this and it makes his VP pick very important, it truly is his first executive decision. If he can pick a candidate whether it be Hillary or not who can bring this block of voters that are already democrats, then Obama will win the general with ease. If however he cannot bring them, then the election will remain close to the end.
Monday, July 28, 2008
Friday, July 18, 2008
Can you Joke about Obama?
Many pundits have proclaimed that Obama is off limits when it comes to humor. This weeks New Yorker magazine cover (Click to see) has sparked media criticism from all over. Many have attacked the cover, and many Obama's response to the cover.
Pat Buchanan said this:
No previous Presidential candidate has had their whiteness challenged. No previous candidate has even had secret Email campaign's spouting lies about his faith, his heritage and his families heritage. No white candidate has ever been accused of being where they are because of the color of their skin. Obama supporters couldn't care less if he is the butt of a joke, as long as the joke has nothing to do with his blackness. White folks don't have to put up with it and neither should Black folks.
Race is everywhere this year, the media is having a field day with it. They couldn't wait for the next exit poll showing the difference in the white vote, and the black vote. They chatted for hours over Obama's "Working class White" problem. And the grand daddy of them all, Jeremiah Right. Theres nothing like a black man shouting "God Damn America" to boost ratings. John Stewart correctly proclaimed its like crack cocaine for the mostly white viewing public.
Givin this backdrop, is it any wonder some issues would spark furious backlash from the ardent Obama supporters. They dont mind making fun of Barack as long as its fair, and not about Race.
Pat Buchanan said this:
"Hillary Clinton has been compared to the sex-starved Glenn Close character in "Fatal Attraction." George Bush's verbal gaffes are endlessly panned by late-night comics and Comedy Central. But Barack gets the special-ed treatment. Our first affirmative action candidate."Really? Our first affirmative action candidate. Pat shows us exactly why the Obama supporters get enraged with this stuff. Its about Race.
No previous Presidential candidate has had their whiteness challenged. No previous candidate has even had secret Email campaign's spouting lies about his faith, his heritage and his families heritage. No white candidate has ever been accused of being where they are because of the color of their skin. Obama supporters couldn't care less if he is the butt of a joke, as long as the joke has nothing to do with his blackness. White folks don't have to put up with it and neither should Black folks.
Race is everywhere this year, the media is having a field day with it. They couldn't wait for the next exit poll showing the difference in the white vote, and the black vote. They chatted for hours over Obama's "Working class White" problem. And the grand daddy of them all, Jeremiah Right. Theres nothing like a black man shouting "God Damn America" to boost ratings. John Stewart correctly proclaimed its like crack cocaine for the mostly white viewing public.
Givin this backdrop, is it any wonder some issues would spark furious backlash from the ardent Obama supporters. They dont mind making fun of Barack as long as its fair, and not about Race.
The Money Game - June
June Fund raising numbers are now in for both sides. McCain raised 22 million, Obama 52 million. The average Obama donation was $68 showing the power of having 2 million small donars who can give over and over.
Of the 52 million only 2 million will be put aside for the general campaign after the conventions. It was speculated in June that Obama might raise 100 million. Although that proved to lofty a goal the 52 was much better than the 30 reported by the Wall Street Journal earlier this week. Any doubt that Obama was having fund raising problems is gone now.
Senator McCain raised 22 million in June, his best month to date. While that number pales in comparison to Obama it was a good month especially given the lack of enthusiasm on the republican side.
If you believe these numbers are ominous for McCain heading into the fall, not to worry, The Republican National Committee has to date raised tens of millions virtually all of which will be used for the McCain presidential campaign. With the momentum clearly behind the democrats this fall the RNC has decided not to help Senate and Congressional candidates leaving them to what most analysts believe will be a slaughter. By putting all their eggs in one basket, the RNC believes it may be able to help McCain win the Oval Office thus salvaging something in a clearly tough year.
The DNC by comparison has had its difficulties raising money but their numbers improved in June. In contrast to the republicans the DNC plan to help out down-ticket Democrats with their congressional races. Even though the DNC hasn't raised a lot of money this season, democrats by and large are flush with cash. The momentum behind the democrats seems unstoppable at this point.
With the June numbers in, it appears Barack Obama's decision to raise his own general election money and forgo campaign finance was a good one. First, he will raise a lot more money than he otherwise could have, and second, with the RNC focusing all thier cash on the presidential race he's going to need it.
Of the 52 million only 2 million will be put aside for the general campaign after the conventions. It was speculated in June that Obama might raise 100 million. Although that proved to lofty a goal the 52 was much better than the 30 reported by the Wall Street Journal earlier this week. Any doubt that Obama was having fund raising problems is gone now.
Senator McCain raised 22 million in June, his best month to date. While that number pales in comparison to Obama it was a good month especially given the lack of enthusiasm on the republican side.
If you believe these numbers are ominous for McCain heading into the fall, not to worry, The Republican National Committee has to date raised tens of millions virtually all of which will be used for the McCain presidential campaign. With the momentum clearly behind the democrats this fall the RNC has decided not to help Senate and Congressional candidates leaving them to what most analysts believe will be a slaughter. By putting all their eggs in one basket, the RNC believes it may be able to help McCain win the Oval Office thus salvaging something in a clearly tough year.
The DNC by comparison has had its difficulties raising money but their numbers improved in June. In contrast to the republicans the DNC plan to help out down-ticket Democrats with their congressional races. Even though the DNC hasn't raised a lot of money this season, democrats by and large are flush with cash. The momentum behind the democrats seems unstoppable at this point.
With the June numbers in, it appears Barack Obama's decision to raise his own general election money and forgo campaign finance was a good one. First, he will raise a lot more money than he otherwise could have, and second, with the RNC focusing all thier cash on the presidential race he's going to need it.
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Obama's Southern Coat Tails.
There has been much talk about Obama's Southern Strategy. His campaign believes they have a chance to put the south in play. Of all the evidence thus far only Virginia looks as though Obama will have a real chance. Georgia shouldn't be in play but with increased African American turnout, increased youth turnout, and libertarian candidate Bob Barr from Georgia stealing some vote, Obama has an outside chance.
What worries the GOP isn't the democratic presidential candidate sweeping through the south, its the down ticket candidates getting a lift from an Obama turnout surge. Many of the democrats southern candidates are much more conservative and thus acceptable to southern voters. Combine that with the poor republican brand and high black and youth turnout and the GOP smells trouble.
Obama's blue tidal wave in the south will not be enough to turn the entire south blue, but it just might turn blue enough to help the Dem's win major victories where otherwise thought impossible. And thats a step in the right direction for future democratic presidential prospects.
What worries the GOP isn't the democratic presidential candidate sweeping through the south, its the down ticket candidates getting a lift from an Obama turnout surge. Many of the democrats southern candidates are much more conservative and thus acceptable to southern voters. Combine that with the poor republican brand and high black and youth turnout and the GOP smells trouble.
Obama's blue tidal wave in the south will not be enough to turn the entire south blue, but it just might turn blue enough to help the Dem's win major victories where otherwise thought impossible. And thats a step in the right direction for future democratic presidential prospects.
I Can't Bear to Watch
The Obama campaign seems to have lost its aggressiveness the last few weeks. After winning the nomination, Obama was really tearing into McCain day in day out every time he opened his mouth. Lately, theres been very little. Even the Graham gaff about whiny Americans made yesterday, Obama spent a minute and a half on it yesterday proclaiming "We've already got one Dr. Phil and we don't need another." Thats it. Nothing further yesterday, nothing more today. Nothing from surrogates except when asked about it. Meanwhile the McCain campaign continues to hammer away when not being thrown off course like the last couple days- What gives?
Why doesn't Obama latch onto this like he's fighting for his political life and hammer McCain relentlessly? Force the media to cover it. Every word out of Obama's mouth should be related to McCain's apparent believe that the recession is "Psychological." He could win the white house on this issue alone. But he does nothing. As much as the Obama supporters dislike Hillary, she would be on this like white on rice. She would have herself and Bill, Terry McCaulif, Lanny Davis, Paul Begalla,James Carville, Wolfowitz, and every single member of that campaign blasting McCain minute after minute, hour after hour, day after day relentlessly for weeks. Every time you looked at McCain for the rest of your life that is what you would see. Obama ...
Nothing. No statement, nothing.
I know he has a lot of smart campaign people working for him. But I have no idea what they are doing. Its like they have no idea elections in the United States are not won on issues, but on media spin. Whoever best manipulates the media, usually wins. The Clintons were masters at it. The McCain camp is trying. The Obama camp either doesn't realize, or doesn't care. If he's trying to run a more civil campaign, I find that admirable, but its risky.The MSM has an unyielding appetite that must be fed. If Obama doesn't feed it, McCain will.
A perfect example of this is the apparent Obama flip flop on Iraq. A flip flop that doesn't exist. His use of the word "Refine" came at the end of his press conference and in no way changed any of his policies on Iraq. But the McCain camp said it was a flip flop and CNN and other networks said "O.K., sounds good to us lets run with it." Mark Halprin on CNN said this was the most important development of the general election. I was truly Baffled. I have been speaking the English Language for nearly 30 years now, I went to college and consider myself of at least average intelligence. The word refine in no way means to change or alter. It means to refine, to be more specific and lay out in more detail. In fact a fact checking website (Politifact.com) has looked into this and says this :
"Weighing all these statements together, we find the McCain campaign is off-base in saying Obama has changed position. Obama repeatedly said facts on the ground could affect the tactical moves of an overall withdrawal. Obama's position was not an iron-clad withdrawal timeline in the first place. We find the McCain campaign's statement that Obama has reversed position to be False."
Obama had to deny this for a week, and still now general perception is that he flip flopped. The MSM is not out for being fair or factual. They are out for ratings. Fox News is based on manipulating the public, and they do it very well. If Obama doesn't play the game, he might just lose the game altogether.
Why doesn't Obama latch onto this like he's fighting for his political life and hammer McCain relentlessly? Force the media to cover it. Every word out of Obama's mouth should be related to McCain's apparent believe that the recession is "Psychological." He could win the white house on this issue alone. But he does nothing. As much as the Obama supporters dislike Hillary, she would be on this like white on rice. She would have herself and Bill, Terry McCaulif, Lanny Davis, Paul Begalla,James Carville, Wolfowitz, and every single member of that campaign blasting McCain minute after minute, hour after hour, day after day relentlessly for weeks. Every time you looked at McCain for the rest of your life that is what you would see. Obama ...
Nothing. No statement, nothing.
I know he has a lot of smart campaign people working for him. But I have no idea what they are doing. Its like they have no idea elections in the United States are not won on issues, but on media spin. Whoever best manipulates the media, usually wins. The Clintons were masters at it. The McCain camp is trying. The Obama camp either doesn't realize, or doesn't care. If he's trying to run a more civil campaign, I find that admirable, but its risky.The MSM has an unyielding appetite that must be fed. If Obama doesn't feed it, McCain will.
A perfect example of this is the apparent Obama flip flop on Iraq. A flip flop that doesn't exist. His use of the word "Refine" came at the end of his press conference and in no way changed any of his policies on Iraq. But the McCain camp said it was a flip flop and CNN and other networks said "O.K., sounds good to us lets run with it." Mark Halprin on CNN said this was the most important development of the general election. I was truly Baffled. I have been speaking the English Language for nearly 30 years now, I went to college and consider myself of at least average intelligence. The word refine in no way means to change or alter. It means to refine, to be more specific and lay out in more detail. In fact a fact checking website (Politifact.com) has looked into this and says this :
"Weighing all these statements together, we find the McCain campaign is off-base in saying Obama has changed position. Obama repeatedly said facts on the ground could affect the tactical moves of an overall withdrawal. Obama's position was not an iron-clad withdrawal timeline in the first place. We find the McCain campaign's statement that Obama has reversed position to be False."
Obama had to deny this for a week, and still now general perception is that he flip flopped. The MSM is not out for being fair or factual. They are out for ratings. Fox News is based on manipulating the public, and they do it very well. If Obama doesn't play the game, he might just lose the game altogether.
Saturday, July 12, 2008
First Poll Shift of General Election
This week marks the first time since Barack Obama wrapped up the nomination that we have seen movement in the polls. Obama has maintained a 4-6 point lead since winning the nomination in early June. The Rasmussen tracking poll had Obama with a consistent lead over that period until this week. Obama's lead has steadily shrunk this week to a tie between him and competitor John McCain.
In addition to the Rasmussen poll a Newsweek poll released today shows the Illinois senator leading his rival by 3 points, down from 15 a month ago. The Newsweek poll was considered an outlier by most so this more recent poll is much more in line with general wisdom however the 12 point drop does lend credence to the fact that the senator has lost some steam.
The other well respected daily tracking poll from Gallup has been much more volatile over the last 6 weeks, shifting daily from an Obama 6 point lead to a dead heat, has Obama with a 4 point lead as of today, down two yesterday. I'll keep watch and see if the Gallup breaks new ground.
The democratic nominee has had a rough couple weeks . (with the noted exception of McCain's chief economic advisers out of touch remarks on Thursday) He is taking heat from both the right and the left over shifting positions during that time. The left is angry over Obama's vote on the FISA legislation last week, and the right is blasting him over what they call "Flip Flops" on everything from the Iraq war, campaign finance, abortion, the death penalty, and the second amendment.
Whether all these charges are true doesn't really matter. The MSM has grasped this story and is running with it. Public perception is that Obama has shifted. I attribute Obama's recent suffering in the polls too this perception taking hold. Senator Obama won the democratic Primary running against Washington and as a new politician who will tell you "Not what you want to hear but what you need to hear." It looks as though this flip-flop charge has stuck with some voters and thus a loss of support.
As mentioned earlier the McCain campaign has had its own problems the last couple days and we will wait and see if the polls reflect that. This writer believes most of the polling doesn't matter much until after the VP selections and conventions. Although I do believe that whether Hilary gets on the ticket may be related to how well Barack is doing in the polls in mid August and how well the party is uniting. The tighter the race is, the better Hilary's chances are.
In addition to the Rasmussen poll a Newsweek poll released today shows the Illinois senator leading his rival by 3 points, down from 15 a month ago. The Newsweek poll was considered an outlier by most so this more recent poll is much more in line with general wisdom however the 12 point drop does lend credence to the fact that the senator has lost some steam.
The other well respected daily tracking poll from Gallup has been much more volatile over the last 6 weeks, shifting daily from an Obama 6 point lead to a dead heat, has Obama with a 4 point lead as of today, down two yesterday. I'll keep watch and see if the Gallup breaks new ground.
The democratic nominee has had a rough couple weeks . (with the noted exception of McCain's chief economic advisers out of touch remarks on Thursday) He is taking heat from both the right and the left over shifting positions during that time. The left is angry over Obama's vote on the FISA legislation last week, and the right is blasting him over what they call "Flip Flops" on everything from the Iraq war, campaign finance, abortion, the death penalty, and the second amendment.
Whether all these charges are true doesn't really matter. The MSM has grasped this story and is running with it. Public perception is that Obama has shifted. I attribute Obama's recent suffering in the polls too this perception taking hold. Senator Obama won the democratic Primary running against Washington and as a new politician who will tell you "Not what you want to hear but what you need to hear." It looks as though this flip-flop charge has stuck with some voters and thus a loss of support.
As mentioned earlier the McCain campaign has had its own problems the last couple days and we will wait and see if the polls reflect that. This writer believes most of the polling doesn't matter much until after the VP selections and conventions. Although I do believe that whether Hilary gets on the ticket may be related to how well Barack is doing in the polls in mid August and how well the party is uniting. The tighter the race is, the better Hilary's chances are.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)