Barack Obama is losing. He's not losing because he's not a better candidate. He's not losing because he's black. He's not losing because of Sarah Palin. He's losing because John McCain and his campaign have been lightyears ahead of Barack Obama and his campaign when it comes to running a presidential campaign.
The turning point in this election wasn't Sarah Palin's selection as VP as many in the MSM have touted. No, there were 2 signifigant turning points before that. The first was the open hostility between the Obama and Clinton camps and more importantly Barack Obama's unwillingness to mend fences and place her as his VP. By the end of the primary, Hillary Clinton, not Obama , was the most popular politician in the country. She had as many votes as Obama and was getting stronger as the Primary season ended. With the democratic party so divided, and with women so dissapointed about Hillary's dimise, how could Obama not pick her. Arrogance. Obama believed he had toppled the Clintons and he was the leader of the party and he didn't need the other democrat with 18,000,000 votes. He would win the general election and usher in a new future for America, he would be the new Lincoln. It seems Obama was reading his own press clippings. By not picking Hillary, Obama left a gaping hole in his already dubous support with women, and McCain has capatilized.
The second turning point in the election was John McCain realizing his campaign was not ready for prime time and placing Steve Schmidt as the campaign director in charge of message. This was smart. Schmidt a Rove desciple, was experienced in national elections and with the Rove principles and knew how to win. McCain , with this selection, knew his honorable campaign was going to end in favor of a dishonorable one, but it was necessary to have a chance at winning. Schmidt immedietly went to work and started winning news cycles. News cycle after newscycle. Manipulating the media into focusng on their manufactured narrative, and it worked beautifully.
While Schmidt and the GOP were getting ready for war, Obama and his stratigests were basking in their glow of winning the Primary and went to work on their vaunted ground game. Millions of volunteers registering voters and preparing for GOTV on Nov 4. Obama's campaign specializes in "The ground Game" and it will need to be spectacular, because the rest of his campaign is losing. The McCain campaign built on pushing the media narrative has devolced into a lying, dishonorable machine focused like a laser beam on winning. It is relentless and unforgiving. They do not care about the truth. They do not care about facts. They do not care about media. And especially they do not care about Obama and his campaign. They are out to take him down, and it is working.
This onslaught should have been anticipated by Obama but his efforts to combat it appear desperate. His campaign appears weak, and unwilling to strike back with the required force. Democrats, sick and tired of seeing this happen, are extremly worried and disshartened by the turn of events. How could Obama let this happen. He said repeatidly he would not let this happen. Why is he not responding. I can only come to one of two possibilities. Either Obama and his campaign are totally incompetant, or, they believe their ground game is so strong that they can win the election regardless of Mccain's newly found momentum. Either way, I and other democrats are disshartend with Obama's feble campaign, and his ground game had better be as good as advertised, because it needs to be.
Friday, September 12, 2008
Monday, September 8, 2008
Momentum, Momentum, Momentum
Momentum? What is it? Where does it come from? How do you get it?
Barack Obama won the democratic primary on momentum alone. His unexpected victory in Iowa launched his campaign into the stratosphere and he rode it for 2 full months through the Wisconsin primaries in mid February where proportional allocation of delegates allowed him to build an insurmountable lead. Momentum.
I remember the day when Obama's momentum started failing. It was the weekend before the Ohio/Texas primaries. An Obama aid had repordidly told a Canadian Govt. official that Obama's stance on NAFTA was just a political position not to wory about. This revelation, combined with the beginning of the Rezko tril, combined with Hillary making very funny appearances on Saturday Night Live and the Hillary 3AM TV ad all in one weekend was the end of the Obama momentum through May 5 when he did much better than expected in the Indiana/North Carolina Primaries. During that period, we say Reverend Right twice, Bitter gate and the pennsylvania Primary loss.
Obama regained momentum once he claimed the democratic nomination and held it until his "Move to the center" started a narrative against him and McCain controlled the momentum even it wasn't the "Big Mo" through the democratic convention where the democrats were raring to go and take the election by storm, but something unexpected happened. The morning after Obama's big speech that was touted as one of the best acceptance speeches ever, McCain picked an unknown female social conservative for VP. That combined with his convention has lit a fire under the Republicans and McCain has shot out of his convention with a huge bounce and what can be only characterized as the "BIG MO." The good news for Obama is this momentum will most likley stop at some point, but how much damage will be done.
By not selecting Hillary Clinton, Obama left the door wide open for McCain to go this route and thus far his big risk has paid off big time. Hillary would have brought this same enthusiasm to the democrats but Obama passed it up for various reasons and in my opinion that may go down as the day he blew this election. Obama must find a way to get the momentum back. It can be done. It must be done, or its over.
Barack Obama won the democratic primary on momentum alone. His unexpected victory in Iowa launched his campaign into the stratosphere and he rode it for 2 full months through the Wisconsin primaries in mid February where proportional allocation of delegates allowed him to build an insurmountable lead. Momentum.
I remember the day when Obama's momentum started failing. It was the weekend before the Ohio/Texas primaries. An Obama aid had repordidly told a Canadian Govt. official that Obama's stance on NAFTA was just a political position not to wory about. This revelation, combined with the beginning of the Rezko tril, combined with Hillary making very funny appearances on Saturday Night Live and the Hillary 3AM TV ad all in one weekend was the end of the Obama momentum through May 5 when he did much better than expected in the Indiana/North Carolina Primaries. During that period, we say Reverend Right twice, Bitter gate and the pennsylvania Primary loss.
Obama regained momentum once he claimed the democratic nomination and held it until his "Move to the center" started a narrative against him and McCain controlled the momentum even it wasn't the "Big Mo" through the democratic convention where the democrats were raring to go and take the election by storm, but something unexpected happened. The morning after Obama's big speech that was touted as one of the best acceptance speeches ever, McCain picked an unknown female social conservative for VP. That combined with his convention has lit a fire under the Republicans and McCain has shot out of his convention with a huge bounce and what can be only characterized as the "BIG MO." The good news for Obama is this momentum will most likley stop at some point, but how much damage will be done.
By not selecting Hillary Clinton, Obama left the door wide open for McCain to go this route and thus far his big risk has paid off big time. Hillary would have brought this same enthusiasm to the democrats but Obama passed it up for various reasons and in my opinion that may go down as the day he blew this election. Obama must find a way to get the momentum back. It can be done. It must be done, or its over.
Saturday, August 16, 2008
The High Road. The Surest Way to Defeat
Lets discuss how Obama has run his campaign since clinching the nomination. In my opinion, he has been running safe. Treading very lightly not wanting to make any waves, any real news. I believe this approach has allowed McCain to push the debate and Obama has been playing defensive all summer. It was last week when Obama finially decided to run his first negative ad against McCain. With the exception of Obama's trip abroad in late July, he's been M.I.A.
You can not coast to the presidency. Michael Dukockus tried that and lost a humiliating defeat. Since winning 14 straight primaries in February, Obama has constantly been playing defense. He played defense against Hillary for the last 4 months of the primary contest and got his ass kicked, now he's been playing defense against McCain for the last 2 months of the general.
While playing defense Obama has lost his entire lead, the race is tied, and supporters are left making excuses like "People are not paying attention yet" or "It's only August." This is the same stuff we said making excuses for Gore and Kerry.
The republicans attacked them every day with smear books, false ads, lies, distortions, anything to bring their opponent down, and it worked. This year the smear tactics are flying every day, the McCain camp are playing false ads on TV, the Muslim smear is constantly being thrown around, now drug use and Obama's a "Marxist" are in vogue. The same campaign style as the last two elections and Obama plays the same type of campaign as Gore and Kerry did, spending all your time defending attacks and smears, instead of smearing right back.
I'm not a big fan of Hillary Clinton, but at least the Clinton's would be in there throwing this crap back at the republicans twice as hard. For every false accusations against them, they'd level 3 against McCain. Now I know this is dirty and beneath the pretty little democrats, but I am sick of watching democrats play nice and hope the American people won't "Buy it" this time while they Democrats continue to lose.
The race is tied, but Obama is losing. Instead of increasing his 5 point lead he had after securing the nomination, its completely disappeared. We can sit hear and make excuses why, and how its still early, and Obama still has the upper hand, and thats all true, but why didn't he go on offense and have a 10 point lead right now instead of losing it all. Aren't we Democrats sick and tired of watching our candidates getting smeared to death and losing while we keep our high moral standards, run our fair campaigns, and play above board.
Obama would be a far better president than Hillary, however Hillary and the Clinton's would win. The Clinton's took the primary for granted and incompetence got them beat. Obama organized caucus states and beat her strategically. A ground game can only do so much in a general. The Clinton campaign was built for a general election against the republicans, not a democratic primary with their hands tied behind their back and the mere thought of going negative would offend democratic sensibilities.
Just tonight I heard analysts pondering why the race is so tight after the "Good" 2 months Obama has had. They've been terrible two months. Obama fights his campaign on the ground, McCain fights it in the media through spin, controversial ads, and over the top campaign statements that get the media talking about what McCain wants them talking about.
McCain issued a 200 word statement accusing Obama of using the race card and the media was talking about it for a week. Thats about $500,000,000 worth of negative advertising against Obama for free. All the Paris talk and celebrity talk is an interesting way of getting the media covering what McCain wants them to cover, and Obama's campaign seems to be oblivious to whats going on.
I know democrats want to have elections based on policy, but the republicans know they can't win those elections, so they turn to the side show, and the media loves it, the republicans know they love it, and the republicans win. Obama HAS to go negative against McCain, not his policies, but him, his character, his money, his 9 homes, the family jet, his lack of understanding how to turn on a computer, his lack of economic understanding, the Phil graham mental recession stuff, all that personal material has to be used. If voters voted on Policy, Kerry and Gore would be President. Instead we got Bush, who wasn't as smart or capable, but had better personal qualities after the republicans smeared his opponents to death, all the while the democrats talked about the strength of their policies.
If Obama stays on the high road, he will lose, and we'll get Hillary as President 4 years from now because the Clinton's could care less about above board campaigns, they want to win . You know what, as much as I deplore that kind of campaigning, I'm at the point I just want to win too.
You can not coast to the presidency. Michael Dukockus tried that and lost a humiliating defeat. Since winning 14 straight primaries in February, Obama has constantly been playing defense. He played defense against Hillary for the last 4 months of the primary contest and got his ass kicked, now he's been playing defense against McCain for the last 2 months of the general.
While playing defense Obama has lost his entire lead, the race is tied, and supporters are left making excuses like "People are not paying attention yet" or "It's only August." This is the same stuff we said making excuses for Gore and Kerry.
The republicans attacked them every day with smear books, false ads, lies, distortions, anything to bring their opponent down, and it worked. This year the smear tactics are flying every day, the McCain camp are playing false ads on TV, the Muslim smear is constantly being thrown around, now drug use and Obama's a "Marxist" are in vogue. The same campaign style as the last two elections and Obama plays the same type of campaign as Gore and Kerry did, spending all your time defending attacks and smears, instead of smearing right back.
I'm not a big fan of Hillary Clinton, but at least the Clinton's would be in there throwing this crap back at the republicans twice as hard. For every false accusations against them, they'd level 3 against McCain. Now I know this is dirty and beneath the pretty little democrats, but I am sick of watching democrats play nice and hope the American people won't "Buy it" this time while they Democrats continue to lose.
The race is tied, but Obama is losing. Instead of increasing his 5 point lead he had after securing the nomination, its completely disappeared. We can sit hear and make excuses why, and how its still early, and Obama still has the upper hand, and thats all true, but why didn't he go on offense and have a 10 point lead right now instead of losing it all. Aren't we Democrats sick and tired of watching our candidates getting smeared to death and losing while we keep our high moral standards, run our fair campaigns, and play above board.
Obama would be a far better president than Hillary, however Hillary and the Clinton's would win. The Clinton's took the primary for granted and incompetence got them beat. Obama organized caucus states and beat her strategically. A ground game can only do so much in a general. The Clinton campaign was built for a general election against the republicans, not a democratic primary with their hands tied behind their back and the mere thought of going negative would offend democratic sensibilities.
Just tonight I heard analysts pondering why the race is so tight after the "Good" 2 months Obama has had. They've been terrible two months. Obama fights his campaign on the ground, McCain fights it in the media through spin, controversial ads, and over the top campaign statements that get the media talking about what McCain wants them talking about.
McCain issued a 200 word statement accusing Obama of using the race card and the media was talking about it for a week. Thats about $500,000,000 worth of negative advertising against Obama for free. All the Paris talk and celebrity talk is an interesting way of getting the media covering what McCain wants them to cover, and Obama's campaign seems to be oblivious to whats going on.
I know democrats want to have elections based on policy, but the republicans know they can't win those elections, so they turn to the side show, and the media loves it, the republicans know they love it, and the republicans win. Obama HAS to go negative against McCain, not his policies, but him, his character, his money, his 9 homes, the family jet, his lack of understanding how to turn on a computer, his lack of economic understanding, the Phil graham mental recession stuff, all that personal material has to be used. If voters voted on Policy, Kerry and Gore would be President. Instead we got Bush, who wasn't as smart or capable, but had better personal qualities after the republicans smeared his opponents to death, all the while the democrats talked about the strength of their policies.
If Obama stays on the high road, he will lose, and we'll get Hillary as President 4 years from now because the Clinton's could care less about above board campaigns, they want to win . You know what, as much as I deplore that kind of campaigning, I'm at the point I just want to win too.
Friday, August 8, 2008
Obama, The Man Without a Message
It was late February 2008. A young African American upstart from Illinois had taken the political world by storm. He had won 13 straight primaries by an average of 28 points. His message of hope and change had lit a fire under people who had never entered the political process before. These new voters and the enthusiasm behind his campaign were driving him to one of the biggest upsets in American political history, defeating the "Clinton Machine." However, from that time in February to the Pennsylvania primary 8 weeks later, everything changed. Lets take a look back at the events that occurred,
1. In the days leading up to the Ohio/Texas primaries Hillary Clinton threw the kitchen sink mat Obama, during that same period, Nafta-gate exploded and the ensuing negative press coverage caused Obama to lose both and thus the primary season went on.
2. Jeremiah Right and "God damn America" burst on the seen with a week of wall to wall negative press coverage.
3. Obama's bitter comments slowed his momentum before the Pennsylvania primary allowing Hillary to win big.
Those three events along with the three primaries Obama lost during that time, changed his campaign and he has not yet recovered. The reason he has not recovered is simple, he lost his message. Hope and change were no longer talked about, all it was now was policy, policy, policy. The charges of "Wheres the beef" along with the political problems that arose in those weeks changed Obama's campaign from one built on hope and change to one built on policy prescriptions and change.
It was not the change that got people involved in his candidacy, it was the hope. When the hopeful, "Bring the country together" rhetoric was gone, so was the excitement. Now, Obama is tied up in a tit for tat campaign based on policy prescriptions and personal attacks. One that the Obama campaign is not good at and thus he is losing. He may be ahead in the polls but he is completely reactive in the campaign, on defense every day, and losing.
What Obama needs is a message. Right now he has none. Policies are not a message. Hope is a message. If Obama continues to push only alternative energy and tax cuts, he will lose. These are good policies but not a reason to get up in the morning and vote for you. Barack Obama needs to tell people why they should vote for him, not his policies, but him. If he does this he will be the next President of the United States.. If he does not, he will not.
1. In the days leading up to the Ohio/Texas primaries Hillary Clinton threw the kitchen sink mat Obama, during that same period, Nafta-gate exploded and the ensuing negative press coverage caused Obama to lose both and thus the primary season went on.
2. Jeremiah Right and "God damn America" burst on the seen with a week of wall to wall negative press coverage.
3. Obama's bitter comments slowed his momentum before the Pennsylvania primary allowing Hillary to win big.
Those three events along with the three primaries Obama lost during that time, changed his campaign and he has not yet recovered. The reason he has not recovered is simple, he lost his message. Hope and change were no longer talked about, all it was now was policy, policy, policy. The charges of "Wheres the beef" along with the political problems that arose in those weeks changed Obama's campaign from one built on hope and change to one built on policy prescriptions and change.
It was not the change that got people involved in his candidacy, it was the hope. When the hopeful, "Bring the country together" rhetoric was gone, so was the excitement. Now, Obama is tied up in a tit for tat campaign based on policy prescriptions and personal attacks. One that the Obama campaign is not good at and thus he is losing. He may be ahead in the polls but he is completely reactive in the campaign, on defense every day, and losing.
What Obama needs is a message. Right now he has none. Policies are not a message. Hope is a message. If Obama continues to push only alternative energy and tax cuts, he will lose. These are good policies but not a reason to get up in the morning and vote for you. Barack Obama needs to tell people why they should vote for him, not his policies, but him. If he does this he will be the next President of the United States.. If he does not, he will not.
Sunday, August 3, 2008
Obama's Biggest Weakness
I started watching presidential politics in 2004, the Kerry campaign. After watching the events of that campaign unfold I realized why democrats have such a hard tome winning Presidential elections and have no problem winning house and senate elections. There are two major reasons.
1. The Republicans have no ground rules for winning the election. Anything goes. If you can get away with it, and it helps your chances, do it. The last two weeks with Senator McCain are perfect examples. The republicans are not interested in fact, they are not interested in fairness, they are not interested in truth. Any angle that helps them win is acceptable.
Two things have to happen for this to be allowed. First the public must view this as acceptable, or it would stop immediately due to backlash. And second, the media must stand aside and not call this for what it is. Both of these conditions exist in todays America. This week I have heard on numerous occasions how sad this campaign is becoming, and they give equal blame to both sides, so there is no incentive to play fair. I'm not old enough to know when this started, or why its accepted, but it is.
The Democrats in contrast believe in standards. Barack Obama is the perfect example this year. He has run very few attack ads and virtually no low ball tactics. In Most other countries this is deemed as integrity and courage, but not in America. Democrats don't like attacking, and for the most part don't do it. And thus the morally superior party gets no credit for its principles, and is often called weak for its non-action.
2. The second reason the democrats lose Presidential elections is the media. The 24 hour news networks (FOX, CNN, MSNBC) gave up covering news a long time ago. Now they are more of an op-ed styled newspaper, where they get 2-4 journalists/political analysts to discuss and give there opinion of the days news events. This subtle change in coverage from fact based to opinion based news, along with their 24 /7 apatite has created a monster. This beast needs conflict, hot button issues to keep eye balls watching to make income for their bottom line. Since many Americans get their political information from these networks they have become a necessary campaign tool, and thus lies the distinction between the two parties.
This beast is no longer interested in truth, just covering the story with participants from both sides to analyze it. This way they can remain non-partial. Knowing this, it has become in the interest of campaigns to try and control this beast and the republicans do it masterfully, while the democrats sensibilities hold them back.
Any story with outrage or conflict , that will keep those eyeballs peeled is considered news worthy and goes on air. So to control the message, the campaign will be sure to create conflict and outrage whenever possible to control the narrative. Republicans do this well. Since anything goes, they will make charges, issue statements, or release commercials who's entire purpose is to garner media time from this 24 hour beast regardless of the veracity of the charge.
This weeks "He played the Race Card" is the perfect example. Obama said these comments the previous day at three different venues, all covered with press people and no one gave any of it a second thought. Hundreds or reporters and millions of viewers and nobody saw anything objectionable, and neither did the McCain campaign. However, the next day, 24 hours later a statement comes out of the McCain campaign accusing Obama of playing the race card, and the beast can't control itself. No issue is as provocative as race, and they kick into full gear with hour after hour coverage on multiple networks for 4-5 days. Analyzed and re-analyzed over and over by anyone with an opinion, all over something no-one though twice about the day before. This was obviously a tactic by the McCain campaign, and it worked brilliantly. Obama who is the subject of very low minded smear campaigns, is now the race baiter, while the McCain campaign who's side the samears came from is the innocent victim.
Herein lies Obama's greatest weakness. In his effort to conduct a civil campaign with none of the outrage and angst of the republicans, he has completely conceded this huge advantage to the them. While he talks issues, they show fake outrage, scurrilous attacks, and deceitful ads all for the media's benefit. Many have stated how Obama gets all the press. Yes he does. And the vast majority of it is negative, save his trip oversees when the media was more interested in that than McCain camp nonsense. Obama has lost 5 points in the polls since June, and nothing has happened other than relentless McCain driven press coverage. Thats the power of the press. If Obama continues to run a high minded campaign, he will continue to be the candidate of honor and integrity, and no one will know about it because the media will be too busy covering the latest scuralous attack against him. Barack must find a way to get the media's attention focused on what he wants it focused on, or this election that he has no business losing, may slip away.
As for the state of our politics, all I can say is, God bless America.
1. The Republicans have no ground rules for winning the election. Anything goes. If you can get away with it, and it helps your chances, do it. The last two weeks with Senator McCain are perfect examples. The republicans are not interested in fact, they are not interested in fairness, they are not interested in truth. Any angle that helps them win is acceptable.
Two things have to happen for this to be allowed. First the public must view this as acceptable, or it would stop immediately due to backlash. And second, the media must stand aside and not call this for what it is. Both of these conditions exist in todays America. This week I have heard on numerous occasions how sad this campaign is becoming, and they give equal blame to both sides, so there is no incentive to play fair. I'm not old enough to know when this started, or why its accepted, but it is.
The Democrats in contrast believe in standards. Barack Obama is the perfect example this year. He has run very few attack ads and virtually no low ball tactics. In Most other countries this is deemed as integrity and courage, but not in America. Democrats don't like attacking, and for the most part don't do it. And thus the morally superior party gets no credit for its principles, and is often called weak for its non-action.
2. The second reason the democrats lose Presidential elections is the media. The 24 hour news networks (FOX, CNN, MSNBC) gave up covering news a long time ago. Now they are more of an op-ed styled newspaper, where they get 2-4 journalists/political analysts to discuss and give there opinion of the days news events. This subtle change in coverage from fact based to opinion based news, along with their 24 /7 apatite has created a monster. This beast needs conflict, hot button issues to keep eye balls watching to make income for their bottom line. Since many Americans get their political information from these networks they have become a necessary campaign tool, and thus lies the distinction between the two parties.
This beast is no longer interested in truth, just covering the story with participants from both sides to analyze it. This way they can remain non-partial. Knowing this, it has become in the interest of campaigns to try and control this beast and the republicans do it masterfully, while the democrats sensibilities hold them back.
Any story with outrage or conflict , that will keep those eyeballs peeled is considered news worthy and goes on air. So to control the message, the campaign will be sure to create conflict and outrage whenever possible to control the narrative. Republicans do this well. Since anything goes, they will make charges, issue statements, or release commercials who's entire purpose is to garner media time from this 24 hour beast regardless of the veracity of the charge.
This weeks "He played the Race Card" is the perfect example. Obama said these comments the previous day at three different venues, all covered with press people and no one gave any of it a second thought. Hundreds or reporters and millions of viewers and nobody saw anything objectionable, and neither did the McCain campaign. However, the next day, 24 hours later a statement comes out of the McCain campaign accusing Obama of playing the race card, and the beast can't control itself. No issue is as provocative as race, and they kick into full gear with hour after hour coverage on multiple networks for 4-5 days. Analyzed and re-analyzed over and over by anyone with an opinion, all over something no-one though twice about the day before. This was obviously a tactic by the McCain campaign, and it worked brilliantly. Obama who is the subject of very low minded smear campaigns, is now the race baiter, while the McCain campaign who's side the samears came from is the innocent victim.
Herein lies Obama's greatest weakness. In his effort to conduct a civil campaign with none of the outrage and angst of the republicans, he has completely conceded this huge advantage to the them. While he talks issues, they show fake outrage, scurrilous attacks, and deceitful ads all for the media's benefit. Many have stated how Obama gets all the press. Yes he does. And the vast majority of it is negative, save his trip oversees when the media was more interested in that than McCain camp nonsense. Obama has lost 5 points in the polls since June, and nothing has happened other than relentless McCain driven press coverage. Thats the power of the press. If Obama continues to run a high minded campaign, he will continue to be the candidate of honor and integrity, and no one will know about it because the media will be too busy covering the latest scuralous attack against him. Barack must find a way to get the media's attention focused on what he wants it focused on, or this election that he has no business losing, may slip away.
As for the state of our politics, all I can say is, God bless America.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)