Sunday, August 3, 2008

Obama's Biggest Weakness

I started watching presidential politics in 2004, the Kerry campaign. After watching the events of that campaign unfold I realized why democrats have such a hard tome winning Presidential elections and have no problem winning house and senate elections. There are two major reasons.

1. The Republicans have no ground rules for winning the election. Anything goes. If you can get away with it, and it helps your chances, do it. The last two weeks with Senator McCain are perfect examples. The republicans are not interested in fact, they are not interested in fairness, they are not interested in truth. Any angle that helps them win is acceptable.

Two things have to happen for this to be allowed. First the public must view this as acceptable, or it would stop immediately due to backlash. And second, the media must stand aside and not call this for what it is. Both of these conditions exist in todays America. This week I have heard on numerous occasions how sad this campaign is becoming, and they give equal blame to both sides, so there is no incentive to play fair. I'm not old enough to know when this started, or why its accepted, but it is.

The Democrats in contrast believe in standards. Barack Obama is the perfect example this year. He has run very few attack ads and virtually no low ball tactics. In Most other countries this is deemed as integrity and courage, but not in America. Democrats don't like attacking, and for the most part don't do it. And thus the morally superior party gets no credit for its principles, and is often called weak for its non-action.

2. The second reason the democrats lose Presidential elections is the media. The 24 hour news networks (FOX, CNN, MSNBC) gave up covering news a long time ago. Now they are more of an op-ed styled newspaper, where they get 2-4 journalists/political analysts to discuss and give there opinion of the days news events. This subtle change in coverage from fact based to opinion based news, along with their 24 /7 apatite has created a monster. This beast needs conflict, hot button issues to keep eye balls watching to make income for their bottom line. Since many Americans get their political information from these networks they have become a necessary campaign tool, and thus lies the distinction between the two parties.

This beast is no longer interested in truth, just covering the story with participants from both sides to analyze it. This way they can remain non-partial. Knowing this, it has become in the interest of campaigns to try and control this beast and the republicans do it masterfully, while the democrats sensibilities hold them back.

Any story with outrage or conflict , that will keep those eyeballs peeled is considered news worthy and goes on air. So to control the message, the campaign will be sure to create conflict and outrage whenever possible to control the narrative. Republicans do this well. Since anything goes, they will make charges, issue statements, or release commercials who's entire purpose is to garner media time from this 24 hour beast regardless of the veracity of the charge.

This weeks "He played the Race Card" is the perfect example. Obama said these comments the previous day at three different venues, all covered with press people and no one gave any of it a second thought. Hundreds or reporters and millions of viewers and nobody saw anything objectionable, and neither did the McCain campaign. However, the next day, 24 hours later a statement comes out of the McCain campaign accusing Obama of playing the race card, and the beast can't control itself. No issue is as provocative as race, and they kick into full gear with hour after hour coverage on multiple networks for 4-5 days. Analyzed and re-analyzed over and over by anyone with an opinion, all over something no-one though twice about the day before. This was obviously a tactic by the McCain campaign, and it worked brilliantly. Obama who is the subject of very low minded smear campaigns, is now the race baiter, while the McCain campaign who's side the samears came from is the innocent victim.

Herein lies Obama's greatest weakness. In his effort to conduct a civil campaign with none of the outrage and angst of the republicans, he has completely conceded this huge advantage to the them. While he talks issues, they show fake outrage, scurrilous attacks, and deceitful ads all for the media's benefit. Many have stated how Obama gets all the press. Yes he does. And the vast majority of it is negative, save his trip oversees when the media was more interested in that than McCain camp nonsense. Obama has lost 5 points in the polls since June, and nothing has happened other than relentless McCain driven press coverage. Thats the power of the press. If Obama continues to run a high minded campaign, he will continue to be the candidate of honor and integrity, and no one will know about it because the media will be too busy covering the latest scuralous attack against him. Barack must find a way to get the media's attention focused on what he wants it focused on, or this election that he has no business losing, may slip away.

As for the state of our politics, all I can say is, God bless America.

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