Monday, September 8, 2008

Momentum, Momentum, Momentum

Momentum? What is it? Where does it come from? How do you get it?
Barack Obama won the democratic primary on momentum alone. His unexpected victory in Iowa launched his campaign into the stratosphere and he rode it for 2 full months through the Wisconsin primaries in mid February where proportional allocation of delegates allowed him to build an insurmountable lead. Momentum.

I remember the day when Obama's momentum started failing. It was the weekend before the Ohio/Texas primaries. An Obama aid had repordidly told a Canadian Govt. official that Obama's stance on NAFTA was just a political position not to wory about. This revelation, combined with the beginning of the Rezko tril, combined with Hillary making very funny appearances on Saturday Night Live and the Hillary 3AM TV ad all in one weekend was the end of the Obama momentum through May 5 when he did much better than expected in the Indiana/North Carolina Primaries. During that period, we say Reverend Right twice, Bitter gate and the pennsylvania Primary loss.

Obama regained momentum once he claimed the democratic nomination and held it until his "Move to the center" started a narrative against him and McCain controlled the momentum even it wasn't the "Big Mo" through the democratic convention where the democrats were raring to go and take the election by storm, but something unexpected happened. The morning after Obama's big speech that was touted as one of the best acceptance speeches ever, McCain picked an unknown female social conservative for VP. That combined with his convention has lit a fire under the Republicans and McCain has shot out of his convention with a huge bounce and what can be only characterized as the "BIG MO." The good news for Obama is this momentum will most likley stop at some point, but how much damage will be done.

By not selecting Hillary Clinton, Obama left the door wide open for McCain to go this route and thus far his big risk has paid off big time. Hillary would have brought this same enthusiasm to the democrats but Obama passed it up for various reasons and in my opinion that may go down as the day he blew this election. Obama must find a way to get the momentum back. It can be done. It must be done, or its over.

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